Influencing Factors and Prediction of Market Demands for Fresh Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province
Fresh agricultural products are one of the most frequently consumed commodities in the national market,and accurate prediction of the market demand for fresh agricultural products is related to people's livelihood,and can also provide a certain reference for scientific and rational decision-making of agricultural production activities.In order to accurately predict the market demand of fresh agricultural products,this paper took Jiangsu Province as a case study,analyzed the factors of national economy,policy investment,market consumption and logistics expenditure,and select five key indicators affecting the market demand of fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province as the research object.The market demand of fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2021 was applied as the original data,and the prediction results of the market demand for fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province from 2022 to 2026 were optimized based on the Markov Optimization Linear Regression Model.The results showed that there is no multicollinearity between the independent variables of the R2 test,significance test and linear regression model of the constructed predictive model,of which with a high goodness-of-fit.The prediction result after the optimization of the Markov model was closer to the actual value,which reduced the prediction error.For the period 2022-2026,the market demand for fresh agricultural products in Jiangsu Province continued to rise and the growth rate was relatively stable.
fresh agricultural productsdemand forecastingMarkov modelmultiple linear regression model
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