Study on the Spatial-temporal Changes of Land Use and Its Driving Mechanism in Chang-Zhu-Tan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS Model
After the reform and opening up,the process of urbanization of in our country has gradually accelerated,and the level of urbanization is constantly improving.However,the excessive expansion of urban scale has caused environmental pollution,biodiversity decline,and other problems,which are not conducive to sustainable economic and social development.Therefore,it is very necessary to study and analyze urban land use change.This paper takes the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area as the research area.Based on the land use dataset and social and economic data,ArcGIS 10.8 and PLUS models are used as the main research tools,and dynamic attitude,transfer matrix,expansion intensity,and center of gravity migration are used as the indicators.This aims to explore the spatial-temporal changes and driving factors of major land use types such as cultivated land,forest land,and construction land in Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area from 1992 to 2021,and try to simulate and predict the land use pattern in 2030.The results show that during the study period,the area of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan area increases greatly,but the area of forest land decreases greatly.In addition to the main urban area,there is also a certain expansion trend of construction land in the northwest and east.Population and DEM are the main driving factors of construction land expansion,but the overall land use efficiency in the study area is not high.The Kappa index of the PLUS model simulation results was 0.79,and the overall accuracy was 0.88,both of which met the requirements of research accuracy.The research results can provide areasonable basis and planning reference for the sustainable utilization of regional land resources.
Chang-Zhu-Tan metropolitan areaLand useSpace-time changeDriving mechanismPLUS model
万方数据
维普
