Objective To analyze the characteristics of the time series trend of mumps monthly incidence in Nanning Economic and Technological Development Zone from January 2012 to December 2022,use ARIMA model to predict the incidence trend,and provide a basis for scientific and reasonable prevention and control countermeasures.Methods SPSS 23.0 software was used to establish the ARIMA model,compared the incidence rate from January to July 2023 with the predicted incidence rate,and predicted the incidence rate from August to December 2023.Results From 2012 to 2022,a total of 1 155 cases of mumps were reported in Nanning Economic and Technological Development Zone,with an annual average incidence of 5.91/100 000.The majority were adolescents under 15 years old,accounting for 88.31％of the total cases.The vaccination rate of mumps-containing vaccine(MuCV)had increased.The model construction results showed that ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)12 was the best model.The model prediction results showed that the overall trend change of the predicted value and the actual value from January to July 2023 was consistent,with an average error of 0.22.Conclusions It is of great significance to establish ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,0)12 model to predict the monthly incidence of mumps in Nanning Economic and Technological Development Zone in 2023 by using the monthly incidence data from 2012 to 2022.
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