Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city,Guangxi province,from 2018-2022,to explore changes in transmission trends,to predict short-term morbidity,and to provide a basis for prevention and control work.Methods The data on other infectious diarrhea reported by medical and health institutions at all levels in Wuzhou city in the disease surveillance information reporting management system from 2018-2022 were analyzed and organized using descriptive epidemiological methods.JoinPoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trend of changes in the incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city from 2018-2022.SPSS 19.0 software was used to establish a simple seasonal index model to predict the incidence trend of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city in 2023.Results A total of 41 411 cases of other infectious diarrhea and 1 death were reported in Wuzhou city from 2018 to 2022,with an average annual incidence rate of 279.55/100 000.The ratio of the number of incidence cases of male to female gender was 1.27∶1,and there was a statistically significant difference in the comparison of incidence rates of male and female(x2=19.499,P＜0.001).The main age of incidence of other infectious diarrhea was the age group of 0 to＜1,1～＜10 age group.Occupational distribution was dominated by children living at home,accounting for 51.94％of the total number of reported cases.However,the composition ratio of children living at home had been decreasing year by year,while the composition ratio of students increased year by year.Longxu district,Changzhou district,and Wanxiu district were the hotspots of incidence.JoinPoint regression analysis showed that the incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city showed a decreasing trend from 2018-2022,with the average monthly percent change decreased by 2.11％(95％CI:-6.00％～1.95％,P=0.304).The composition ratio of children living at home showed a decreasing trend,with the annual percentage change decreased by 8.30％(95％Cl:-11.94％to-4.50％,P=0.006).The composition ratio of students showed an increasing trend,with the annual percentage change increased by 17.43％(95％Cl:7.27％to 28.56％,P=0.011).The incidence rate of Changzhou district showed a decreasing trend,with the annual percentage change decreased by 15.60％(95％Cl:-24.18％to-0.82％,P=0.044).Using a simple seasonal model,the incidence rates of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city January to December 2023 were predicted to be 22.20/100 000,19.06/100 000,16.66/100 000,9.17/100 000,8.89/100 000,6.82/100 000,6.18/100 000,7.26/100 000,9.01/100 000,9.44/100 000,5.90/100 000,10.58/100 000.The model fits well enough to make relevant predictions.Conclusions Overall the epidemic of other infectious diarrhea in Wuzhou city shows a slow decreasing trend from 2018-2022,and the risk of incidence is higher in children,farmers,and student groups,effective interventions should be continued to control the prevalence of other infectious diarrhea.
other infectious diarrheaepidemiological characteristicsdescriptive analysisdisease predictionchanging trend
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万方数据
