Data Forecast of Container Throughput in Shanghai Port Based on SARIMA Model Considering COVID-19
China is a major port country and Shanghai Port has long been the world leader in terms of container throughput.The COVID-19 epidemic in December 2019 had a significant influence on global shipping.But it is unclear how much it has affected Shanghai Port and what the future trends in container throughput will be.Therefore,to forecast the container throughput of Shanghai Port from November 2022 to October 2023,monthly data from the port's container throughput of the previous nine years were used as the original samples.A SARIMA model for time series analysis was conducted to eliminate the seasonal impacts.The results show that the forecast is accurate.Additionally,the base model was enhanced using the abnormal value replacement method to lessen the impact of the COVID-19 on the future data forecasts.The optimal model was chosen to forecast the throughput of containers at Shanghai Port.The findings demonstrate that industry managers can use the forecast data as a guide when developing relevant plans and staffing.
data forecastingSARIMA modelcontainer throughputCOVID-19
万方数据
维普
