Cumulative Warranty Demand Prediction Model Considering Repair Time
Warranty service,as a quality assurance agreement provided by manufacturers to consumers free of charge at the time of sale,can enhance consumers'trust in the quality of products,but also increase the expenses incurred by the warranty demand.Accurate forecasting of warranty demand can help manufacturers achieve efficient management of O&M resources.Most of the previous warranty demand forecasting models were limited to the total product warranty demand and ignored the sales process,while the impact of repair time was also ignored for the convenience of calculation.In this paper,under the free non-renewal minimum maintenance policy,the dynamic sales process of the product was simulated by the homogeneous Poisson process,and the impact of repair time on the cumulative warranty demand was portrayed by the alternating renewal theory in the stochastic process,so as to achieve the warranty demand forecasting for any time period.The model analysis reveals that the change in unit time warranty demand can be divided into three stages:rising,stable,and falling.This provides a theoretical basis for manufacturers to allocate resources,capital,etc.rationally.
万方数据
维普
