The Study of Prevention Strategies and Healthcare Resource Allocation Problem in COVID-19 Spreading Scenarios
The allocation of healthcare resources under epidemic prevention and control needs to consider both the service level and utilization rate of the resources.Population mobility and other factors were first introduced into the suspected-exposed-infected-removed(SEIR)model of epidemic spreading to build a cellular automata model that was more consistent with the actual epidemic transmission process.The total number of people infected with the epidemic and the real-time changes in the number of patients could be obtained through the simulation.Combined with the dynamic changes in the number of patients,the demand satisfaction rate and utilization rate indicators of healthcare resources were calculated.Following this process,the implementation effects of several popular epidemic prevention and control strategies including face mask-wearing,patient isolating,vaccinating,nucleic acid testing,and'lock-down'were analyzed.Finally,taking hospital beds as an example,their impacts on the healthcare resource allocation problem were discussed.The results demonstrate that a quick response to epidemic spreading will significantly decrease the demand for medical resources.On the contrary,epidemic prevention strategies cannot reduce the demand for medical resources,but can only reduce the total number of patients.
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