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基于LightGBM的集中供热系统预测控制策略研究

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针对城市集中供热系统大时滞非线性、换热站负荷预测与调控过度依赖人工经验、系统预测及调控过程不精细、不及时以及系统能耗偏高等现状,提出了一种基于轻梯度提升机(Light Gradient Boosting Machine,LightGBM)的集中供热系统预测控制策略.首先,结合供热系统气候补偿工艺原理,建立了基于LightGBM换热站回水温度预测模型,用以确保回水温度预测目标的及时性与可靠性;其次,设计了基于移动加权平均算法的预测函数,结合PI D控制算法实现了集中供热系统的精准负荷预测与高性能调控.实践结果表明,所提出的基于LightGBM的集中供热系统预测控制策略,可及时精准地预测换热站运行负荷且具有更好的超前控制效果,有效地提高了集中供热控制系统的可靠稳定性能.
Research on predictive control strategy for central heating system based on LightGBM
A predictive control strategy for centralized heating systems based on Light Gradient Boos-ting Machine(LightGBM)is proposed to address the current situation of large time delay nonlinearity in urban centralized heating systems,excessive reliance on manual experience in load prediction and regula-tion of heat exchange stations,imprecise and untimely system prediction and regulation processes,and high system energy consumption.Firstly,based on the principle of climate compensation technology in heating systems,a LightGBM heat exchange station return water temperature prediction model was estab-lished to ensure the timeliness and reliability of the return water temperature prediction target.Secondly,a prediction function based on the moving weighted average algorithm was designed,and combined with the PID control algorithm,precise load prediction and high-performance regulation of the centralized heating system were achieved.The practical results show that the proposed LightGBM based predictive control strategy for central heating systems can accurately predict the operating load of heat exchange sta-tions in a timely manner and has better advanced control effects,effectively improving the reliability and stability performance of the central heating control system.

central heating systemLightGBMload forecastingmoving weighted average algo-rithmpredictive control

王荣鑫、葛振福、侯晨晨、王越洋

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淄博市热力集团有限责任公司

淄博热力有限公司,山东淄博 255000

集中供热系统 LightGBM 负荷预测 移动加权平均 预测控制

2024

工业仪表与自动化装置
陕西鼓风机(集团)有限公司

工业仪表与自动化装置

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.393
ISSN:1000-0682
年,卷(期):2024.(3)