摘要
为精确预测沥青路面性能的衰减趋势,以便合理确定道路养护的时机和方案,综合灰色模型与马尔科夫模型的优势,构建灰色马尔科夫链的组合模型,对不同沥青路面的性能指标进行预测,并以某实际道路为例,探讨两种模型的预测特性和适用范围,同时比较两种模型的预测精度差异.研究结果表明:灰色理论模型在具备历史路面性能数据的情况下,对PCI的预测精度达到一级,预测结果可靠;对于性能较好的路段,预测精度更高;在预测性能较差的路段时,精度提升显著,表明组合模型适用范围更广,更适合长期预测.
Abstract
In order to accurately predict the attenuation trend of asphalt pavement performance,so as to reasonably determine the timing and scheme of road maintenance,the combination model of Grey Markov chain is constructed by integrating the advantages of grey model and Markov model.The model predicts the performance indexes of different asphalt pavements.Taking a real road as an example,the prediction characteristics and application scope of the two models are discussed,and the prediction accuracy differences of the two models are compared.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the grey theory model for PCI reaches the first level and the prediction result is reliable when the historical pavement performance data are available;For the road with better performance,the prediction accuracy is higher;When the prediction performance is poor,the accuracy is significantly improved,indicating that the combined model has a wider application range and is more suitable for long-term prediction.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据