Study on Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Performance Based on Combination Model
In order to accurately predict the attenuation trend of asphalt pavement performance,so as to reasonably determine the timing and scheme of road maintenance,the combination model of Grey Markov chain is constructed by integrating the advantages of grey model and Markov model.The model predicts the performance indexes of different asphalt pavements.Taking a real road as an example,the prediction characteristics and application scope of the two models are discussed,and the prediction accuracy differences of the two models are compared.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the grey theory model for PCI reaches the first level and the prediction result is reliable when the historical pavement performance data are available;For the road with better performance,the prediction accuracy is higher;When the prediction performance is poor,the accuracy is significantly improved,indicating that the combined model has a wider application range and is more suitable for long-term prediction.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
