Foreign trade dependence is a key variable in the process of accelerating the construction of a new development paradigm,and changes in consumption and production caused by change of population structure are important factors deter-mining foreign trade dependence.This paper establishes a theoretical model of population structure and foreign trade de-pendence,selects panel data of 42 countries from 1980 to 2022,and introduces government and household consumption shares as mediating variables,and real sector leverage ratio as moderating variables to study the mechanism of population structure affecting foreign trade dependence.The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between popu-lation structure and foreign trade dependence,such as urbanization rate,age dependency ratio,aging rate,labor force par-ticipation rate,and female labor force proportion,which is more significant in developed countries and high per capita GDP countries.Urbanization rate affects foreign trade dependence through consumption share,with government and households consumption share playing a partial mediating role.Leverage ratio of the government,households,and non-financial cor-porate sectors has strengthened the positive effect of urbanization rate on foreign trade dependence.
关键词
新发展格局/人口结构/外贸依存度/影响机理
Key words
new development paradigm/population structure/foreign trade dependence/impact mechanism
维普
万方数据