Analysis of Spatio-temporal Variations in Yield Loss Risk of Sugarcane in Guangxi
This study aimed to investigate the risk of yield loss in sugarcane production in different periods in Guangxi and provide important scientific support for disaster prevention,reduction,and regional development planning in sugarcane cultivation.The statistical yield data of sugarcane in Guangxi from 1961 to 2021 were utilized.Trend yield separation method,yield loss risk index construction method,and GIS spatial analysis method were employed to analyze the spatial distribution of average yield reduction rate,coefficient of yield reduction rate variability,risk probability of different yield reduction rates,and yield loss risk index during three periods:P1(1961～1980),P2(1981～2000),and P3(2001～2021).The relationship between meteorological disasters in different periods and the yield loss risk index was also discussed.The results indicated that:①The average yield reduction rate in each period was P1＞P2＞P3,with higher rates in the eastern part during the P1 period and in the northern part during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced low yield reduction rates during the P3 period.②The coefficient of variation for yield reduction rates varied with P2＞P3=P1,with higher variation in the northern region dominated by Hechi during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced moderate or low variation coefficients during the P1 and P3 periods.③The probability of different yield reduction rates in each period followed the order of P1＞P2＞P3,with spatial variations mainly observed in the east-west direction during the P1 and P2 periods,while the overall spatial differences were smaller during the P3 period.④The risk index of yield loss(R)during each period was in the order of P1＞P2＞P3,with higher values during the P1 period and higher values in the northern region dominated by Hechi during the P2 period,while the majority of the region experienced low or relatively low risk of yield loss during the P3 period.The risk of yield loss in the P3 period for sugarcane was significantly lower than that in the P1 and P2 periods.The research results indicate that under the current climate and production technology context,yield loss risk of sugarcane reduced.Sugarcane production in Guangxi was moving towards a favorable direction.However,it was still necessary to be cautious about the impact of agricultural meteorological disasters such as drought in western and central Guangxi,as well as low-temperature frost in northern Guangxi,on sugarcane production.
万方数据
维普
