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厄尔尼诺下崇左市极端气象干旱对甘蔗生长影响

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利用崇左市7个国家级地面气象观测站1981~2023年逐日降水量数据、Hadley中心海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,通过相关性分析、合成、HP滤波分析等方法,分析崇左市季节性极端气象干旱的成因;结合 2009 年以来崇左市甘蔗株高、单产数据,研究春季和夏秋季极端气象干旱对甘蔗生长的影响.研究结果表明:季节内降水量偏少,小雨、无雨日数多,中雨及以上等级的强降雨日数少等是崇左市季节性气象干旱发生的直接原因;赤道中东太平洋是影响崇左市季节性降水量的重要海温关键区.2023 年厄尔尼诺发展,崇左市春季(3~5 月)出现极端气象干旱,2020 年厄尔尼诺衰减并快速转为拉尼娜状态,崇左市出现夏秋季(7~9月)极端气象干旱.春季极端气象干旱减缓甘蔗苗期生长速度,降低年终单产;夏秋季极端气象干旱对甘蔗茎伸长期株高影响巨大,导致株高和产量严重受损.
Impacts of Extreme Meteorological Drought on Sugarcane Growth in Chongzuo under El Ni?o
Using the daily precipitation data of 7 stations in Chongzuo,sea surface temperature(SST)data of Hadley Center and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1981 to 2023,this paper analyzed the causes of seasonal extreme meteorological droughts in Chongzuo by correlation,synthesis,HP filtering and other computational methods.Combining with the data of sugarcane height and yield since 2009,the impacts of extreme meteorological droughts on the growth of sugarcane in spring and summer-autumn seasons were investigated.The results of the study showed that the low precipitation,the high number of days with little or no rain,and the low number of days with heavy rainfall were the direct causes of seasonal meteorological droughts in Chongzuo.The equatorial east-central Pacific Ocean was an important SST key area affecting the seasonal precipitation in Chongzuo.In 2023,El Niño developed and extreme meteorological drought occurred in Chongzuo in spring(March-May),while 2020 was the year of El Niño attenuation with summer turning into La Niña state,and extreme meteorological drought occurred in summer and fall(July-September).Extreme meteorological drought in spring reduced sugarcane seedling height and yield,while extreme meteorological drought in summer and fall had a great impact on the height of sugarcane during the elongation period,leading to serious damage to plant height and yield.

SugarcaneExtreme meteorological droughtEl NiñoPlant heightYield

黄翠银、蒙秀娟、丁美花、陈剑飞、赵定国、谭佳勇

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广西壮族自治区气候中心,广西南宁 530022

广西崇左东亚糖业有限公司,广西崇左 532200

广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西南宁 530022

广西壮族自治区气象灾害防御技术中心,广西南宁 530022

河池市气象局,广西河池 547000

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甘蔗 极端气象干旱 厄尔尼诺 株高 产量

广西重点研发计划项目广西重点研发计划项目

桂科AB22080101桂科AB22035069

2024

甘蔗糖业
中国糖协,全国甘蔗糖业信息中心

甘蔗糖业

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.548
ISSN:1005-9695
年,卷(期):2024.53(4)