首页|基于气象因子的广西甘蔗锤度估算模型研究

基于气象因子的广西甘蔗锤度估算模型研究

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以1981~2020年柳州、崇左等 9 地市种植的台糖 134、桂糖 11 号、新台糖 16 号和新台糖 22号为研究对象,通过对甘蔗品种区分为新植蔗、宿根蔗,对发育期划分为茎伸长期、成熟期和全生育期,利用聚类分析、线性拟合、二次项拟合以及多元拟合等方法,构建了基于气象因子的甘蔗锤度估算模型。结果表明:①4 个甘蔗品种中新台糖 16 号甘蔗锤度整体水平最高,新台糖 22 号甘蔗锤度离散度最小,通过聚类分析,可将甘蔗锤度表现按广西地域划分为 4 类,其中由红壤与石灰土、赤红壤与石灰土组成的土壤类型地区甘蔗锤度水平最高;②无论是否划分生育阶段,影响甘蔗锤度最主要的因素均为不同甘蔗品种对应的气象因子,且各品种甘蔗锤度影响最显著的气象因子差别较大,台糖 134 为新植茎伸长期降水日数,桂糖 11 号为宿根全生育期降水量,新台糖 16 号为宿根全生育期最低气温,新台糖 22 号为新植全生育期最小相对湿度;③不同甘蔗品种锤度对不同生育期间气象因子的响应情况不同,台糖 134新植成熟期日照时数、桂糖 11 号宿根全生育期降水量通过二次项估算的效果最好,R2 分别达 0。563、0。700;新台糖 16 号全生育期、新台糖 22 号宿根茎伸长期通过多元拟合估算的效果最好,调整R2 分别为 0。843、0。996,利用二次项拟合较线性拟合能提高模型估算拟合度。
Research on Estimation Model of Brix of Sugarcane based on Meteorological Factors in Guangxi
This study investigates the brix levels of sugarcane varieties Taitang134,Guitang11,Xintaitang16,and Xintaitang22,cultivated in nine municipalities,including Liuzhou and Chongzuo,from 1981 to 2020.By distinguishing between newly planted and ratooned sugarcane,and categorizing the developmental stages into elongation,maturation,and the entire growth period,we developed a brix estimation model based on meteorological factors using methods such as clustering analysis,linear fitting,quadratic fitting,and multiple fitting.The results indicate that:①Among the four sugarcane varieties,Xintaitang16 exhibited the highest overall brix level,while Xintaitang22 showed the lowest variance in brix.Clustering analysis allowed for the classification of brix levels into four categories based on regional characteristics in Guangxi,with regions characterized by red soil and limestone as well as reddish soil and limestone exhibiting the highest brix levels.②Regardless of the classification of growth stages,the primary factors influencing the brix levels of sugarcane were found to be the corresponding meteorological factors associated with different sugarcane varieties,which varied significantly among the varieties.Specifically,for Taitang134,the number of rainy days during the elongation stage of newly planted sugarcane was significant;for Guitang11,total precipitation during the entire growth period of ratooned sugarcane was critical;for Xintaitang16,the minimum temperature during the entire growth period of ratooned sugarcane was influential;and for Xintaitang22,the minimum relative humidity during the entire growth period of newly planted sugarcane was key.③Different sugarcane varieties exhibited varying responses in brix levels to meteorological factors during different growth periods.For instance,the response of newly planted sugarcane variety Taitang134 to sunshine hours during the maturity period and the response of ratooned sugarcane variety Guitang11 to precipitation throughout the growth period are best estimated through quadratic terms,with R2 values of 0.563 and 0.700,respectively;The estimation effect of the whole growth period of Xintaitang16 and the stem elongation period of Xintaitang22 ratooned sugarcane is best through multiple regression fitting,with adjusted R2 values of 0.843 and 0.996,respectively.Using quadratic fitting instead of linear fitting can improve the model's estimation accuracy.

SugarcaneMeteorological factorBrixEstimating model

叶骏菲、陈燕丽、林奕桐、黄璐、刘永裕、黄立宁

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南宁市气象局,广西 南宁 530011

广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西 南宁 530022

柳州市农业气象试验站,广西 柳州 545003

广西糖业集团良圻制糖有限公司,广西 南宁 530300

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甘蔗 气象因子 甘蔗锤度 估算模型

2024

甘蔗糖业
中国糖协,全国甘蔗糖业信息中心

甘蔗糖业

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.548
ISSN:1005-9695
年,卷(期):2024.53(6)