首页|生育政策放开对居民家庭负债的影响研究——以全面二孩政策实施效果为例

生育政策放开对居民家庭负债的影响研究——以全面二孩政策实施效果为例

扫码查看
近年来,我国的生育政策不断宽松,从"单独二孩"到"全面二孩",再到"三孩"政策,由此带来的家庭支出增加可能进一步传导至居民家庭负债增加.基于我国 2016 年放开"全面二孩"的政策实践,利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,使用双重差分方法和截断回归模型,研究该政策对我国居民家庭负债的影响.研究发现,"全面二孩"政策的实施显著增加了居民家庭持有负债的概率.边际效应的计算显示,当家庭受到全面"二孩"政策影响时,家庭持有负债的概率平均增加 6%.据此提出,解决人口问题不仅需要宽松的生育政策,更需要在生育政策外下功夫.从居民家庭负债视角来看,更切实的支持和补贴政策是发挥生育政策作用的关键.
Influence of Relaxing Fertility Policy on Household Debt——An Empirical Analysis of Two-child Policy
In recent years,China's fertility policy has experienced a constant relaxing process.The increase of household expenditure caused by relaxing fertility policy may be further transmitted to the increase of household debt.Therefore,based on the policy practice of the"the two-child policy"in 2016,this paper uses the data of Chinese household tracking survey to study the impact of the policy on household debt in China with difference in difference method and truncated regression model.The empirical results show that the implementation of the"the two-child policy"significantly raises the probability of households debt.When families are affected by the policy,the probability of holding debt increases by 6%.According to the conclusion,solving the population problem requires not only a relaxing fertility policy,but also efforts outside.From the perspective of household debt,more effective support and subsidies will make the fertility policy more effective.

fertility policyrelaxationtwo-child policyhousehold debt

杜朝运、耿玉刚

展开 >

泉州师范学院 商学院, 福建 泉州 362000

厦门大学 经济学院, 福建 厦门 361005

生育政策 放开 全面二孩政策 家庭负债

国家社会科学基金

18BJL079

2024

河北工业大学学报(社会科学版)
河北工业大学

河北工业大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.603
ISSN:1674-7356
年,卷(期):2024.16(1)
  • 11