采用第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)数据对未来我国海域风速长期变化趋势进行分析,并评估风能资源分布的变化.研究表明SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585共四种代表性情景下,2015-2100年东海风速呈显著减小趋势;南海海域风速随外辐射强迫的增加呈显著增长趋势;黄海、渤海地区增长趋势较弱.未来南海北部海域风功率密度显著增加,相对历史数据最大增长 12%,东海则有所下降,最大降幅为 11%.4种代表性情景下,近岸风能总体变化较小,随着人为辐射强迫增加呈现略减小趋势,长江口附近海域风功率密度及年均风能随外辐射强迫增加而出现较为明显下降,黄海、渤海、南海沿岸大多基本维持不变.
Assessment of Long-Term Variations of Wind Speed and Wind Resources in China Seas Under the Global Warming
The data from the International Coupled Model Comparison Program Phase 6(CMIP6)were used to analyze the future long-term variations of wind speed in China seas and to assess the changes in wind resource distribution.The results show that under four representative scenarios,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585 from 2015 to 2100,the wind speed in the East China Sea shows a significant decreasing trend and the wind speed in the South China Sea shows a significant increasing trend with the increase of external radiative forcing,while the increasing trend in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea are weaker.The wind power density in the northern part of the South China Sea increases significantly in future scenarios,with a maximum increase of 12%relative to historical mean,while that in the East China Sea decreases,with a maximum decrease of 11%.Under the four scenarios,the overall change in near-shore wind power is small,but generally decreases with the increase in external radiative forcing.The wind power density and annual mean wind power in the sea area near the Yangtze River Estuary decreases significantly with the increase in external radiative forcing,while that in the Yellow Sea,the Bohai Sea,and most of the South China Sea coasts generally remain unchanged.
global warmingCMIP6ScenarioMIPwind speedwind energytrend analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
