Focused on the carbon emissions of China's construction industry from 2005 to 2021.The paper utilized the STIRPAT model and Ridge regression to identify the factors influencing car-bon emissions.Additionally,three scenarios were created to predict the future carbon emissions of China's construction industry from 2022 to 2060.The findings indicate that urbanization has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,followed by population size and energy structure.Further-more,carbon emissions from the construction industry have reached a plateau since 2015.Low carbon,baseline,and aggressive scenarios,the peak time for the construction industry is respec-tively projected to occur in 2025,2030,and 2040.However,achieving carbon neutrality in the construction industry by 2060 is challenging and requires collaboration across multiple industries and disciplines.
关键词
建筑业/碳达峰碳中和/STIRPAT模型/情景分析
Key words
construction industry/Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality/STIRPAT model/scenario analysis
维普
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