河北环境工程学院学报2024,Vol.34Issue(1) :34-40,48.DOI:10.13358/j.issn.2096-9309.2023.0926.04

基于Dagum—GM的安徽省资源承载力评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Resource Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on Dagum-GM

孔玉 何刚 张静怡 何训喜 彭振军
河北环境工程学院学报2024,Vol.34Issue(1) :34-40,48.DOI:10.13358/j.issn.2096-9309.2023.0926.04

基于Dagum—GM的安徽省资源承载力评价与预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Resource Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on Dagum-GM

孔玉 1何刚 1张静怡 1何训喜 1彭振军1
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作者信息

  • 1. 安徽理工大学 经济与管理学院,安徽 淮南 232001
  • 折叠

摘要

从社会资源系统、经济资源系统和生态资源系统中选取 16 个指标,构建综合评价指标体系,通过熵权法和TOPSIS法测度安徽省 2007-2021 年的资源承载力,借助Dagum基尼系数对皖南、皖中、皖北地区进行资源承载力的差异分析,并运用灰色预测模型预测安徽省2022-2026 年的资源承载力.结果表明:(1)安徽省资源承载力整体发展态势较为平稳,逐年缓慢上升,向好发展;(2)皖南、皖中、皖北三地区间资源承载力差异明显,且变化幅度较大;(3)预测结果表明,安徽省资源承载力在2022-2026 年呈上升趋势.

Abstract

This article selects 16 indicators from the social resource system,economic resource sys-tem,and ecological resource system to construct an evaluation index system.The resource carrying capacity of Anhui Province from 2007 to 2021 is measured using entropy weight method and TOPSIS method.The Dagum Gini coefficient is used to analyze the differences in resource carrying capacity in the southern,central,and northern regions of Anhui Province,and the grey prediction model is used to predict the resource carrying capacity of Anhui Province from 2022 to 2026.The results indi-cate that:(a)The overall development trend of resource carrying capacity in Anhui Province is rela-tively stable,with a slow increase year by year and a positive development trend.(b)There are sig-nificant differences in resource carrying capacity among the three regions of southern Anhui,central Anhui,and northern Anhui,with significant changes.(c)The prediction results indicate that the re-source carrying capacity of Anhui Province will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2026.

关键词

资源承载力/熵权—TOPSIS/Dagum基尼系数/灰色预测

Key words

resource carrying capacity/entropy weight TOPSIS/Dagum Gini coefficient/grey prediction

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基金项目

教育部人文社科规划基金(22YJAZH025)

2023年淮南市学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义四星规划重点课题(SXGH2023-08)

安徽理工大学基金项目(2023cx2160)

出版年

2024
河北环境工程学院学报

河北环境工程学院学报

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参考文献量16
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