Carbon Peak Prediction for Oil and Gas Resource Cities in Northeast China
The large amount of energy consumption in oil and gas resource cities in northeast Chi-na makes carbon dioxide emissions continue to climb,and the prediction of future carbon emission trends is of great significance for cities to formulate emission reduction policies.Taking the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource cities in Northeast China from 2001 to 2022 as the research ob-ject,the STIRPAT model and ridge regression were used to decompose the carbon emission influ-ence factors,and 32 combination scenarios were set up by combining with the scenario analysis method to predict the carbon emissions and the time of carbon peaking of oil and gas resource ci-ties in Northeast China from 2023 to 2035 under the scenarios.The results show that carbon emi-ssion factors have a positive impact on the carbon emissions of oil and gas resource cities in the Northeast region;Panjin and Daqing peak in 2030 in the baseline scenario,and Panjin,Songyuan and Daqing peak in 2025 in the earliest time in the single-path scenario and the combined-path scenario.Based on these results,it is recommended that cities should cultivate and develop new in-dustries and improve energy efficiency in order to take the lead in achieving peak carbon.
northeast Chinaoil and gas resource-based citiesSTARPAT modelscenario analy-siscarbon peaking
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
