基于DPSIR模型的淮河流域安徽段生态环境评价及影响因素研究
Ecological Environment Assessment and Influencing Factors in Anhui Section of Huaihe River Basin Based on DPSIR Model
何训喜 1何刚 1彭振军 1孔玉 1张静怡1
作者信息
- 1. 安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南 232001
- 折叠
摘要
基于DPSIR模型构建指标,利用熵权-TOPSIS法计算淮河流域安徽段2012-2022年生态安全指数,利用灰色GM(1,1)预测未来生态状况,引入障碍度模型,识别关键影响因素.结果表明:2012-2022年淮河流域安徽段生态安全呈上升势态,从高到低依次是蚌埠、阜阳、合肥、宿州、滁州、六安、淮南、亳州和淮北;生态安全指数存在地域差距,皖南地区普遍高于皖北地区,且皖北未来发展水平有待提高;5个关键影响因素为节能环保财政支出、人均水资源量、经济密度、人均GDP和一般公共预算.
Abstract
Based on the DPSIR model,the ecological security index of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin from 2012 to 2022 was calculated by entropy weight-TOPSIS method,the future eco-logical status was predicted by grey GM(1,1),and the obstacle degree model was introduced to i-dentify the key influencing factors.The results showed that:(a)The ecological security of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2012 to 2022,and the ecological security index was in the following order:Bengbu,Fuyang,Hefei,Suzhou,Chuzhou,Lu'an,Huainan,Bozhou and Huaibei.(b)There were regional disparities in the ecological security in-dex,and the southern Anhui area was generally higher than the northern Anhui area,and the future development level of the northern Anhui area needed to be improved.(c)The five key influen-cing factors are:fiscal expenditure on energy conservation and environmental protection,per capita water resources,economic density,per capita GDP and general public budget.
关键词
生态安全/DPSIR模型/熵权-TOPSIS法/GM(1,1)灰色预测/障碍度模型Key words
ecological safety/DPSIR model/entropy weight-TOPSIS method/GM(1,1)grey prediction/obstacle degree model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72271005)
教育部人文社科规划基金项目(22YJAZH025)
安徽理工大学研究生创新项目基金(2023cx2160)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据