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基于DPSIR模型的淮河流域安徽段生态环境评价及影响因素研究

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基于DPSIR模型构建指标,利用熵权-TOPSIS法计算淮河流域安徽段2012-2022年生态安全指数,利用灰色GM(1,1)预测未来生态状况,引入障碍度模型,识别关键影响因素.结果表明:2012-2022年淮河流域安徽段生态安全呈上升势态,从高到低依次是蚌埠、阜阳、合肥、宿州、滁州、六安、淮南、亳州和淮北;生态安全指数存在地域差距,皖南地区普遍高于皖北地区,且皖北未来发展水平有待提高;5个关键影响因素为节能环保财政支出、人均水资源量、经济密度、人均GDP和一般公共预算.
Ecological Environment Assessment and Influencing Factors in Anhui Section of Huaihe River Basin Based on DPSIR Model
Based on the DPSIR model,the ecological security index of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin from 2012 to 2022 was calculated by entropy weight-TOPSIS method,the future eco-logical status was predicted by grey GM(1,1),and the obstacle degree model was introduced to i-dentify the key influencing factors.The results showed that:(a)The ecological security of Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin showed an upward trend from 2012 to 2022,and the ecological security index was in the following order:Bengbu,Fuyang,Hefei,Suzhou,Chuzhou,Lu'an,Huainan,Bozhou and Huaibei.(b)There were regional disparities in the ecological security in-dex,and the southern Anhui area was generally higher than the northern Anhui area,and the future development level of the northern Anhui area needed to be improved.(c)The five key influen-cing factors are:fiscal expenditure on energy conservation and environmental protection,per capita water resources,economic density,per capita GDP and general public budget.

ecological safetyDPSIR modelentropy weight-TOPSIS methodGM(1,1)grey predictionobstacle degree model

何训喜、何刚、彭振军、孔玉、张静怡

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安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南 232001

生态安全 DPSIR模型 熵权-TOPSIS法 GM(1,1)灰色预测 障碍度模型

国家自然科学基金项目教育部人文社科规划基金项目安徽理工大学研究生创新项目基金

7227100522YJAZH0252023cx2160

2024

河北环境工程学院学报

河北环境工程学院学报

ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.34(3)