Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of water ecological security in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin
In order to carry out reasonable evaluation of water ecological security in Anhui section of Huaihe River Basin,the spatio-temporal evolution law and future change trend were analyzed.The DPSIR model was applied to construct the evaluation index system of water ecological security in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Basin,the weight of CRITIC and the rank sum ratio me-thod were applied to calculate the water ecological security index of the Anhui section of the Huai-he River Basin from 2013 to 2022,the spatio-temporal evolution rule was explored by using the kernel density and standard deviation ellipse,and the prediction accuracy of various methods was compared.The GM-ARIMA model was selected to predict the development trend of water ecologi-cal security.The results showed that from 2013 to 2022,the water ecological security index of An-hui section of Huaihe River Basin increased steadily from 0.420 to 0.554.From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution,the water ecological security level gradually moved from the center to the north and south,and the gap between the water ecological security level in the south and north was further widened.From 2023 to 2027,the prediction results of water ecological security index show an upward trend,and the water ecological security level of the cities south of the Huai River is higher than that of the cities north of the Huaihe River.
water ecological securityDPSIR modelspace-time evolution characteristicsforecast
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
