河南省经济-环境-矿产资源耦合协调发展评价及预测
Evaluation and forecast of the coupled coordinated development of economy-environment-mineral resources in Henan Province
耿进强 1张骁睿1
作者信息
- 1. 河北地质大学 城市地质与工程学院,河北 石家庄 050031
- 折叠
摘要
采用组合权重法、耦合协调度模型与障碍度模型分析 2010-2022 年河南省经济-环境-矿产资源的耦合协调效应及障碍因子,并应用ARIMA-GM模型预测河南省2023-2027 年的耦合协调度发展趋势.结果表明:经济发展指数呈稳步上升趋势,环境发展指数、矿产资源发展指数呈"W"型趋势变化,整个系统耦合协调水平有所提升,但仍处于濒临失调状态;各子系统协调发展障碍度从高到低依次是经济子系统、环境子系统和矿产资源子系统;分情景预测,情景4 相对改善力度最大,其耦合协调度在2027 年为0.815,达到良好协调发展水平.
Abstract
The analysis from 2010 to 2022 in Henan Province employed a combination of the com-posite weighting method,the coupling coordination degree model,and the obstacle degree model to examine the coupling and coordination effects,as well as the obstacle factors of the economy-envi-ronment-mineral resource nexus.Furthermore,the ARIMA-GM model was employed to predict the developmental trend of coupled coordination in Henan Province for the years 2023 to 2027.The re-sults indicate that the economic development index has shown a steady upward trend,while the en-vironmental and mineral resource development indices have exhibited a"W"shaped trend.Al-though the overall system's coupled coordination level has improved,it still remains in a state of imbalance.The descending order of the obstacle degrees to coordinated development among the sub-systems is as follows:the economic sub-system,the environmental sub-system,and the mineral resource sub-system.Predictions under different scenarios reveal that scenario 4 demonstrates the greatest relative improvement,with a coupled coordination degree of 0.815 by 2027,reaching the category of good coordinated development.
关键词
河南省/组合权重法/耦合协调度/障碍度模型/ARIMA-GM模型Key words
Henan Province/combination of composite weighting method/coupled coordination degree model/obstacle degree model/ARIMA-GM model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据