Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Conyza canadensis Using MaxEnt Model
Conyza canadensis is one of the most widely distributed invasive plants in China.According to literature collec-tion and biological information database,a total of 325 valid data were obtained,and 8 meteorological factors were ob-tained by correlation analysis and screening with ArcGIS and SPSS.The potential suitable areas of the C.canadensis was predicted using MaxEnt model.The results showed that the ROC curve of the potential suitable area of the C.canadensis in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model,and the average AUC was 0.971,which showed excellent prediction re-sults.The jackknife method showed that precipitation in the hottest quarter(BIO_18),standard deviation of seasonal tem-perature change(BIO_4),average annual temperature(BIO_1)and precipitation in the coldest quarter(BIO_19)had the greatest influence on the distribution of C.canadensis The potential habitat areas of C.canadensis is widely distributed in China,and the provinces south of the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River and north of the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River to the south of Liaoning Province are all within the range of C.canadensis high suitable areas.With the change of climate,the area of potential suitable area in 2050 will increase by 559 016.64 km2,and the area of potential suitable area in 2070 will increase by 627 440.30 km2 compared with the current.The results of this study can realize the dynamic early warning of the invasion of the C.canadensis,and provide a theoretical basis for further prevention work.
Conyza canadensisinvasive plantsMaxEnt modelpotential suitable areas
万方数据
维普
