Spatial-temporal Changes and Predictive Analysis of Cultivated Land in Hunan Province
The cultivated land have an important guiding significance for the study of food security and regional sustainable development.Based on the 1996-2008 data of cultivated land's quantity and some other social economic factors,the change process of cultivated land from 1996 to 2008 in Hunan province was analyzed,the spatial-temporal characteristics of cultivated land's change were revealed,and the main reasons of this change was analyzed.Likewise,the trend of cultivated land's change in the study area was predicted with GM(1,1)model.The results showed that in 1996-2008,the per capita cultivated land in Hunan province decreased from 0.061 5 hm2 to 0.055 4 hm2,and the cultivated land's change have obvious spatial difference.The fastest decreased region in 13 years was Xiangxi autonomous continent,decreased 1.096%.With the principal component analysis,the driving forces of change of farmland quantity in Hunan province were identified as the development of economy,the advancement of science and technology,and the increase of population.Meanwhile,according to the predicted result that the cultivated land in the study area would continue to decrease from 2011 to 2020,the proposal of taking effective measures of cultivated land protection,to realize the dynamic balance of total arable land was put forward.
change of cultivated landprincipal component analysisGM(1,1) modelHunan province