气候变化对城市暴雨洪涝影响研究进展
Research Progress on the Impact of Climate Change on Urban Rainstorm and Flooding
邓梓锋 1高玮志 1廖耀星 1王兆礼2
作者信息
- 1. 华南理工大学 土木与交通学院,广东 广州 510641
- 2. 华南理工大学 土木与交通学院,广东 广州 510641;人工智能与数字经济广东省实验室(广州),广东 广州 510335
- 折叠
摘要
在气候变化和城市化的双重驱动下,人口稠密、经济发达的城市地区的洪涝问题日趋严重.气候变化背景下城市暴雨洪涝研究既是全面认识和理解气候变化影响的重要内容,也是降低灾害风险、减轻灾害影响的实际需要.从探究方法和技术手段的角度,综述了气候变化下极端降水特征、城市暴雨洪涝和城市洪涝韧性 3 个方面的国内外主要研究成果;系统归纳了气候变化下城市暴雨洪涝变化趋势的诊断方法、技术手段,关注气候情景设计、洪涝评估模型;阐述了气候变化下城市洪涝韧性的理念与实践,总结了韧性定性、定量评估方法;指出了气候变化下城市暴雨洪涝研究面临的主要挑战及关键技术难题,提出了未来研究的重点方向,如加强对气候变化与城市化双重驱动下极端降水、复合洪涝时空演变特征及其形成机理的研究,提高人工智能模型对气候变化背景下洪涝模拟的准确性和可解释性,深化城市洪涝韧性中概念框架、定性定量方法以及不确定性的探讨等.
Abstract
Under the dual impact of climate change and urbanization,flooding in densely populated and economically de-veloped urban areas is becoming increasingly serious.The study of urban storm water flooding in the context of climate change is not only an important part of the comprehensive knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change,but also a practical need to reduce disaster risks and mitigate the impacts of disasters.From the perspective of exploration methods and technical means,this paper summarizes the main achievements at home and abroad in three aspects,namely,extreme precipitation characteristics,urban rainstorm and flood,and urban flood resilience under climate change.This pa-per systematically summarizes the diagnostic methods and technical means of the change trend of urban rainstorm and flood under climate change,focusing on climate scenario design and flood assessment model.The concept and practice of urban flood resilience under climate change are described,and the research on resilience qualitative and quantitative assessment methods is summarized.The main challenges and key technical problems of urban rainstorm and flood research under cli-mate change are pointed out,and the key directions of future research are put forward,for example,to deepen the under-standing of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of extreme precipitation and compound floods and their forma-tion mechanisms under the dual impacts of climate change and urbanization,to improve the accuracy and interpretability of artificial intelligence models for flood simulation in the context of climate change,and further investigate the conceptual framework,qualitative and quantitative methods,and exploration of uncertainty in urban flood resilience.
关键词
气候变化/城市洪涝/洪涝韧性/极端降水/研究进展Key words
climate change/urban flooding/flood resilience/extreme precipitation/research progress引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U1911204)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2022A1515240071)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据