基于EnKF的水光互补系统适应性调度规则敏感性分析
Sensitivity Analysis of Adaptive Scheduling Rules for Hydro-photovoltaic Hybrid Power Systems Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter
李赫 1张圣杰 2丁雨婷 2左其亭1
作者信息
- 1. 郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001;郑州大学 黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南 郑州 450001
- 2. 郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001
- 折叠
摘要
水光互补是解决电力能源供应问题、构建低碳能源体系、实现"双碳"目标的重要举措.采用集合卡尔曼滤波对线性调度函数的参数进行动态更新,构建了水光互补中长期适应性调度规则,并以龙羊峡水光互补电站为研究对象,在同化过程中引入预测误差、观测误差及集合规模 3 个不确定性参数,分析了不确定性参数取值对模型时变参数和运行结果的影响,并对参数的敏感性进行了定性分析.结果表明,预测误差、观测误差及集合规模对模型时变参数和运行结果没有显著影响,三者均不是敏感性参数.研究结果可为集合卡尔曼滤波参数不确定性分析及多能互补系统适应性调度研究提供参考.
Abstract
The hydro-photovoltaic(PV)hybrid power system is an important measure to solve the power supply problem,build a low-carbon energy system,and realize the goal of ″dual carbon″.The parameters of linear scheduling function are dynamically updated by ensemble Kalman filter,and the medium and long period adaptive scheduling rules for hydro-PV hybrid power system are constructed.Taking Longyangxia hydro-PV hybrid power station as the research object,three un-certainty parameters,namely,prediction error,observation error and ensemble size,are introduced in the assimilation process.The effects of uncertainty parameter values on the time-varying parameters and operational results of the model are analyzed,and the sensitivity of the parameters is qualitatively analyzed.The results are as follows.Prediction error,obser-vation error and set size have no significant effect on time-varying parameters and operation results of the model,and none of the three are sensitivity parameters.The research results can provide a reference for the uncertainty analysis of ensemble Kalman filter parameters and the study of adaptive scheduling of multi-energy complementary systems.
关键词
集合卡尔曼滤波/水光互补/变化环境/适应性调度/敏感性分析Key words
ensemble Kalman filter/hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power systems/changing environment/adaptive operation/sensitivity analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52209037)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2022M722880)
中国博士后科学基金项目(2023T160595)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A570002)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据