Simulation and Resilience Regulation of Water-energy-food-carbon Nexus in the Middle Reaches of the Yellow River
Water resources,energy,food,and carbon emissions have significant impacts on regional development levels and ecological environment quality.The interaction between them constitutes a complex nexus,which is crucial for the co-ordinated green development of the region.Taking the middle reaches of the Yellow River as the research object,system dynamics is adopted to explore the correlation model of water,energy,food and carbon.Based on the basic data of water resources,energy,food,and carbon emissions in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1999 to 2019,the coupling relationship between these four subsystems is sorted out.The development and change of the system in the next 30 years are simulated,and the toughness evaluation index system is constructed from three aspects of resistance,resilience and adapta-bility to evaluate the whole system.The results are as follows.Firstly,under the conventional development model,it is ex-pected that there will not be a significant supply-demand gap in water resources and food by 2050,while the energy con-sumption gap will become larger with the development of the social economy.Secondly,there are differences in the three scores for each scenario,with the scenario where multiple subsystems are prioritized performing better in terms of resist-ance,adaptability,and resilience compared to other scenarios.Thirdly,when all four subsystems of scenario 11 are priori-tized for development,and when the energy,food,and socio-economic subsystems of scenario 10 are prioritized for devel-opment,the overall resilience index is highest from 2020 to 2050.Scenario 11 has the lowest carbon emissions and relative-ly high water,energy,and food supply and demand indices,making it the optimal development model.
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