Risk factors analysis and early warning model construction associated with high risk groups for cardiovascular disease of Kazak herdsmen in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang
Objective To analyze the risk factors of high risk groups for cardiovascular disease(CVD)and construct a early warning mode,aiming to provide reference for the prevention and control of CVD in Kazak herdsmen in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang.Methods From September 2021 to February 2023,the questionnaire survey and physical examination of 4543 Kazak herdsmen in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang were performed using multi-stage,stratified,cluster random sampling design.The risk factors of high risk groups for CVD were analyzed.CVD early warning model was constructed by Multivariate logistic regression analysis,and the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)was drawn to evaluate the effect.Results Totally 1,428/4,543(31.4%)cases of CVD high-risk groups of Kazak herdsmen in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang were included in the analysis.BMI,waist circumference(WC),systolic blood pressure(SBP),diastolic blood pressure(DBP),fasting plasma glucose(FPG),low density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),triglyceride(TG)and total cholesterol(TC)in high-risk groups for CVD were significantly higher than those in high-risk groups for non-CVD,while HDL-C was significantly lower than that in high-risk groups for non-CVD(all P<0.05).Multivariate non-conditional logistic regression analysis showed that age,education level,smoking,drinking,no exercise,substandard intake of vegetables and fruits,daily salt≥16.66g,daily milk tea≥1 000mL,high-fat diet,intake of cured and smoked meat,mainly animal oils,and low intake of fish were risk factors for high risk groups for CVD.The lifestyle(smoking,drinking,exercise),dietary habits(intake of vegetables and fruits,daily salt and milk tea,high-fat diet,intake of cured and smoked meat,intake of oil and fish)and self-measured indicators(BMI,SBP,and DBP)were included for establishing a early warning model of CVD high-risk,the early warning model was as:Y=-20.163+0.275×smoking +0.510×drinking +0.433×no exercise +0.211×substandard intake of vegetables and fruits +0.246×salt intake≥16.66g/day+0.241×excessive milk tea +0.256×high fat diet +0.302×intake of cured and smoked meat +0.299×mainly animal oils +0.288×occasional fish consumption + 0.51×no fish consumption +0.042×BMI+0.029×SBP +0.145×DBP,the area under ROC curve of the early warning model was 0.868(95%CI:0.855-0.882),and the model had a good prediction effect.Conclusion The detection rate of high risk groups for CVD of Kazak herdsmen in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang is relatively high.Lifestyle,diet and behavior are the main risk factors.The CVD high-risk early warning model has a good prediction effect.
Kazak nationalitycardiovascular disease(CVD)risk factorsforest mapearly warning model
万方数据
维普
