Objective To analyze the risk factors of nosocomial infection(NI)in the elderly of urology department,and construct a risk prediction model for efficacy validation.Methods A total of 1 050 elderly visited Department of Urology,the Third People's Hospital of Chengdu from January 2022 to December 2022 were enrolled,they were divided into infection group(n=45)and non infection group(1 005)based on the incidence of NI.The risk factors of NI in elderly inpatients of urology department were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis methods for constructing a risk prediction model for NI.The goodness of fit test of the risk prediction model was conducted using Hosmer and Lemeshow,and the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of the risk prediction model.Results The risk factors for NI in the elderly of urology department were age＞75 years old,hospitalization time ≥15 days,surgical treatment,use of ventilator assisted ventilation,and indwelling catheters.The probability model for predicting NI in the elderly of urology department wereP=1/(1+exp[6.055-0.969X1-2.802X2-1.904X4-1.169X5-2.120X6]).The ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under curve(AUC)was 0.916,with a 95％CI of 0.874-0.957.Conclusion Age over 75 years old,hospital stay ≥15 days,surgical treatment,use of ventilator assisted ventilation,and indwelling catheters are risk factors for NI in the elderly of urology department.Therefore,a screening for high-risk patient populations should be conducted based on these factors in clinical practice,thus implementing targeted treatment and intervention measures to prevent infection.In this article,the risk prediction model constructed can scientifically evaluate the risk of NI in elderly of urology department,and providing reference and guidance for clinical practice.
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