Research on Passenger Flow Forecast of Railway Stations at the Initial Stage of Operation Based on Intercity Trip Chain
[Objective]In order to address the lack of data support for passenger flow forecast of railway stations at the initial stage of operation,as well as the significant deviation between the roughly calculated passenger flow transfer of different transport modes considering the costs of different modes and the actual situation.[Method]This paper takes the newly opened Jiangyin Station of the South Riverside Intercity Railway as an ex-ample,considering the location relationship between the line and the existing high-speed and intercity railways,based on the intercity trip chain,and relying on the passenger travel behavior survey to quantitate the intercity trip utilities of different transportation modes.Combined with the current passenger flow assignment and distin-guishing workdays and non-workdays,the Multinomial Logit(MNL)model is established for calibrating the co-efficients of utility variables.Accordingly,the passenger flows from Jiangyin Station on the South Riverside In-tercity Railway,the passenger flows to Nanjing and Shanghai terminals were predicted,to other stations along the line were also calculated deductively in combination with the economic and social developments of the cities along the line.[Result]The results show that the opening of Jiangyin Station can effectively attract the passen-ger flows in Jiangyin area who originally chose the existing railways and highways to Nanjing and Shanghai,as well as the passenger flows that chose the highways to other cities along South Riverside Intercity Railway.[Conclusion]Therefore,the opening of South Riverside Intercity Railway can effectively relieve the transporta-tion pressure of existing railways and highways in the region,and the passenger flow forecast results also sup-ports the optimization of station resource allocation.
万方数据
维普
