This study focuses on the relationship among industrial structure upgrading,green total factor productivity and carbon emissions.First,it quantifies the connotation and characteristics of industrial structure upgrading through two dimensions:the advancement and rationalization of industrial structure.Secondly,it constructs a baseline regression model,a mediation regression model,and a spatial Durbin model based on theoretical hypotheses to empirically test the relationships among industrial structure upgrading,green total factor productivity,and carbon emissions.The results show that:The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant impact on carbon emissions,where the advancement of industrial structure exhibits a distinct phased characteristic.Using 2012 as a time node,its effect on carbon emissions presents an inverted"V"shape,demonstrating a relationship that first promotes and then suppresses emissions,while the rationalization of industrial structure consistently exerts a significant suppressive effect on carbon emissions.As China's econo-my development had entered a new normal in 2012,both the upgrading of industrial structure and the rational-ization of industrial structure have significantly suppressed carbon emissions by enhancing green total factor productivity.The green total factor productivity of a certain region has a relatively obvious suppressive effect on local carbon emissions.,The local carbon emissions decrease by 1.08%for each unit of green total factor pro-ductivity.However,it shows a negative spatial spillover effect on the neighboring regions,resulting in a total effect that is negative but not significant.Finally,conclusions and suggestions are drawn based on the regres-sion results.
关键词
产业结构升级/绿色全要素生产率/碳排放/高质量发展
Key words
industrial structure upgrade/green total factor productivity/carbon emissions/high-quality development
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