The Impact of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Carbon Emissions:Based on the Green Total Factor Productivity
This study focuses on the relationship among industrial structure upgrading,green total factor productivity and carbon emissions.First,it quantifies the connotation and characteristics of industrial structure upgrading through two dimensions:the advancement and rationalization of industrial structure.Secondly,it constructs a baseline regression model,a mediation regression model,and a spatial Durbin model based on theoretical hypotheses to empirically test the relationships among industrial structure upgrading,green total factor productivity,and carbon emissions.The results show that:The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant impact on carbon emissions,where the advancement of industrial structure exhibits a distinct phased characteristic.Using 2012 as a time node,its effect on carbon emissions presents an inverted"V"shape,demonstrating a relationship that first promotes and then suppresses emissions,while the rationalization of industrial structure consistently exerts a significant suppressive effect on carbon emissions.As China's econo-my development had entered a new normal in 2012,both the upgrading of industrial structure and the rational-ization of industrial structure have significantly suppressed carbon emissions by enhancing green total factor productivity.The green total factor productivity of a certain region has a relatively obvious suppressive effect on local carbon emissions.,The local carbon emissions decrease by 1.08%for each unit of green total factor pro-ductivity.However,it shows a negative spatial spillover effect on the neighboring regions,resulting in a total effect that is negative but not significant.Finally,conclusions and suggestions are drawn based on the regres-sion results.
industrial structure upgradegreen total factor productivitycarbon emissionshigh-quality development
万方数据
