Theoretical Logic and Empirical Testing of New Infrastructure Investment Driving Resident Consumption—On the Impact of the Current Fiscal Decentralization System
This study innovatively proposes a theoretical model linking new infrastructure investment to consumption,analyzing the impact of such investment on resident consumption through five sectors:house-holds,firms,research and development,employment,and government.Empirical testing is conducted using provincial panel data from China covering the yeara 2003 to 2021.The empirical results indicate that new in-frastructure investment has a positive effect on both the level of resident consumption and the upgrading of con-sumption structure.In this process,personal income,social investment,technological innovation,and em-ployment structure play significant roles.Notably,new infrastructure investment crowds in social investment.Further analysis reveals that under the constraints of the fiscal decentralization system,the structure of local fiscal revenue can significantly influence the consumption effects of new infrastructure investment.Relying on central transfer payments for investment is beneficial for stabilizing this consumption effect,while blindly ex-panding non-tax revenues weakens the consumption effect and may even produce negative consequences.
new infrastructure investmentresident consumptionfiscal decentralizationcentral transfer paymentsnon-tax revenues
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
