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我国农业经济韧性的时空差异与影响因素分析

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提升农业经济韧性对加快建设农业强国、推进农业农村现代化具有重要意义。运用熵值法、时空水平差异分析、空间杜宾模型,对2011-2021年我国省域农业经济韧性的时空水平进行测度,并对其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)各省域农业经济韧性总体呈现增强趋势,转型升级能力>适应调节能力>抵御风险能力。(2)我国农业经济韧性总体呈现空间溢出效应,且具有"低—低"组合和"低—高"组合的空间集聚特征。(3)空间交互效应下,财政支农对农业经济韧性具有显著正向直接效应、负向间接效应、正向总效应;耕地面积对农业经济韧性具有显著正向直接效应、负向间接效应;城乡差距对农业经济韧性具有显著负向直接效应、负向间接效应。提出需构建"一对一"帮扶体系、搭建风险预测系统等对策建议。
Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Economic Resilience in China
Enhancing the agricultural economic resilience is of great significance for accelerating the construction of a strong agricultural country and promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural areas.Using entropy method,spatio-temporal level difference analysis and spatial Durbin model,the spatio-temporal level of China's provincial agricultural economic resilience from 2011 to 2021 was measured and its influencing factors were analyzed.The results indicated that:(1)the overall agricultural economic resilience in each province showed an increasing trend,with the ability to transform and upgrade>the ability to adapt and adjust>the ability to resist risks.(2)the overall resilience of China's agricultural economy presented spatial spillover effects,and had spatial agglomeration characteristics of low-low and low-high combinations.(3)Under the spatial interaction effect,fiscal support for agriculture had significant positive direct effects,negative indirect effects,and positive overall effects on agricultural economic resilience.The cultivated land area had significant positive direct effects and negative indirect effects on the agricultural economic resilience.The urban-rural gap had significant negative direct and indirect effects on the agricultural economic resilience.The countermeasures and suggestions such as establishing a'one-on-one'assistance system and building a risk prediction system were proposed.

Agricultural economic resilienceSpatial and temporal differencesEntropy methodSpatial Durbin model

洪炎阳、柯珍堂、吴学兵

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长江大学经济与管理学院,湖北 荆州 434023

黄冈师范学院商学院,湖北 黄冈 438000

农业经济韧性 时空差异 熵值法 空间杜宾模型

2024

河北农业科学
河北省农林科学院

河北农业科学

影响因子:0.52
ISSN:1088-1631
年,卷(期):2024.28(3)