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中国产业数字化规模测算与路径分析

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产业数字化是高质量发展和提升国家竞争力的关键所在.本文以《数字经济及其核心产业统计分类》为标准,系统构建产业数字化增加值核算方法,测度了 2007-2021年中国产业数字化规模和结构,考察了中国数字经济发展趋势、特征和内因.此外,还将网络分析法应用于投入产出表序列,通过测算产业数字化最强路径强度和数字技术下游紧密度,分析了中国三次产业数字化路径.研究发现:(1)中国数字经济规模持续扩张,数字产业化布局不断调整,产业数字化主导地位日益凸显.此外,产业数字化抵御冲击能力更强,更有韧性.(2)三次产业数字化规模、占比和增速位列第一的均是第三产业,其中,数字商贸与数字政府表现尤为突出;其次是第二产业;最后是第一产业.(3)三次产业数字化最强路径强度表现为"第三产业>第二产业>第一产业"的发展趋势,这表明三次产业与数字技术融合面临不平衡问题,呈现出"三二一"逆向特征.但总体而言,数字技术下游紧密度不断提升,中国产业数字化整体正向着不断深化的方向发展.本文完善了数字经济核算框架,深化了中国产业数字化规模测算,并补充了产业数字化路径及其强度研究.
Industrial digitization is the key to high-quality development and enhancement of national competitiveness.This article takes the Sta-tistical Classification of the Digital Economy and Core Industries as the standard,systematically con-structs the accounting method for the value added of industrial digitization,measures the scale and structure of China's industrial digitization from 2007-2021,and examines the development trend,char-acteristics,and internal causes of China's digital economy.In addition,the network analysis method is applied to the input-output table sequence,and the digitization paths of China's three industries are analyzed by measuring the intensity of the strongest path of industrial digitization and the downstream tightness of digital technology.The study finds that:(1)The scale of China's digital economy continues to expand,the layout of digital industrialization is constantly adjusted,and the dominant position of industrial digitization is increasingly prominent.In addition,industrial digitization is more resilient to shocks and more resilient.(2)The three industries ranked first in terms of digitization scale,percentage and growth rate are all tertiary industries,in which digital commerce and digital government perform particularly well,followed by secondary industries and finally primary industries.(3)The intensity of the strongest path of digitization in the three indus-tries shows the development trend of'tertiary in-dustry>secondary industry>primary industry',which indicates that the integration of the three in-dustries with digital technology is facing an imbal-ance problem,presenting the reverse characteristic of'the third,second,and first'.However,overall,the downstream tightness of digital technology has been increasing,and the digitization of Chinese in-dustries is developing in the direction of continuous deepening.This article improves the digital economy accounting framework,deepens the measurement of the scale of industrial digitization in China,and supplements the research on the path of industrial digitization and its intensity.

Industrial digitizationScale calculationStrongest pathIntensity of the stron-gest path

赵雨涵、杨飞洋、宋旭光、王婷

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北京航空航天大学人文社会科学学院(公共管理学院)

国际关系学院经济金融学院

北京师范大学统计学院

产业数字化 规模测算 最强路径 最强路径强度

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金国家社会科学基金重点项目

19YJC79019721AJL010

2024

宏观经济研究
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院

宏观经济研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.739
ISSN:1008-2069
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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