The study of the relationship between monetary policy and price changes is an important topic in the field of macroeconomic research.Considering the current anomalies in China's prices,money and growth,this article attempts to study the relationship between monetary policy and price changes in an economic cycle framework.The uniqueness of this article lies in the construction of a macro-theoretical model of mone-tary economy,which links the profit-seeking behavior of micro enterprises,the exogenous and exogenous creation of money supply,and the equi-librium relationship between capital stock and in-come flow,and follows the principle of going from simplicity to complexity,analyzes the dynamic equilibrium of the economy in the three-and four-sectoral sectors,and dynamically simulates the shocks of the macro-policy.Based on this theoretical mod-el,this article discusses the principle of cyclical fluctuations in the operation of prices,pointing out that the CPI is mainly affected by the three channels of wages,asset value and investment,and the PPI is mainly affected by the investment channel.In the prices continue to run low monetary perspective,this article argues that the current M2 and M1 growth rate between the obstruction,mainly in the'M1→M2→M1'cycle of the second half of the part,that is,residents in the income,more inclined to savings rather than consumption and investment,resulting in the funds did not fully return to the enterprise sector,while enterprises tend to be cautious in investment,affecting the nor-mal cycle of the economy,and ultimately making the CPI and PPI continue to run low.Accordingly,it is suggested that the policy design should fully consider the balance between capital stock and income flow,incorporate the nominal GDP growth rate into the economic growth target,increase the intensity of macro policy regulation,and strengthen the guidance of expectations.
万方数据
