首页|地方财政支出与区域经济高质量发展——基于直接效应和空间溢出效应的双重视角

地方财政支出与区域经济高质量发展——基于直接效应和空间溢出效应的双重视角

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区域经济高质量发展是现阶段中国经济社会发展的主要目标之一,而全要素生产率是衡量区域经济高质量发展的核心指标.基于2000-2017年的省级数据,本文采用财政支出规模和财政支出结构两个维度,运用客观熵权法构建了地方财政支出指标;使用固定效应和随机前沿模型估计了全要素生产率;采用莫兰指数对地方财政支出和全要素生产率进行了空间自相关检验;运用空间杜宾模型实证考察了地方财政支出与全要素生产率之间的关系.研究发现:(1)地方财政支出与全要素生产率具有显著的空间依赖关系,在空间邻接权重下,地方财政支出具有提升全要素生产率的直接效应和负向空间溢出效应,该结果具有较强的稳健性;(2)在空间地理距离权重下,地方财政支出的正向直接效应和负向空间溢出效应依然稳健;(3)地方财政支出的作用具有一定的空间溢出距离,在最大空间距离的50%范围内较为显著.基于地方财政支出对全要素生产率的改进具有局部性和非帕累托性,本文从控制地方财政支出的总体规模和生产性支出规模的增长、实施差异化的财政支出策略、加强地方财政支出的透明度三个方面提出了具体政策建议.
High-quality development of re-gional economy is one of the main goals of China's economic and social development at the current stage,and total factor productivity is a core indicator of high-quality development of regional economy.Based on the provincial data from 2000 to 2017,this article constructed local fiscal expenditure indicators using the objective entropy weighting method with the dimensions of fiscal expenditure scale and fiscal expenditure structure;estimated total factor produc-tivity using the fixed-effects and stochastic frontier models;carried out a spatial autocorrelation test for local fiscal expenditure and total factor productivity using the Moran index;and utilized the spatial Durbin model to empirically examine the relationship between local fiscal expenditures and total factor productivity.It is found that:(1)local fiscal ex-penditure and total factor productivity have a signif-icant spatial dependence,and under spatial neighbor weights,local fiscal expenditure has the direct effect and negative spatial spillover effect of enhancing total factor productivity,and this result is highly robust;(2)under spatial geographic distance weights,the positive direct effect and negative spa-tial spillover effect of local fiscal expenditure are still robust;(3)the effect of local fiscal expendi-tures has a certain spatial spillover distance,which is more significant in the range of 50%of the maxi-mum spatial distance.Based on the fact that the improvement of total factor productivity by local fis-cal expenditures is localized and non-Pareto,this article puts forward specific policy recommendations from three aspects:controlling the growth of the overall scale of local fiscal expenditures and the scale of productive expenditures,implementing differenti-ated fiscal expenditure strategies,and strengthening the transparency of local fiscal expenditures.

Local fiscal expenditureTotal factor productivityDirect effectSpatial spillover effect

李娜、梁文明、查梓琰

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江苏省社会科学院

江苏区域现代化研究院

中国财政科学研究院

中国宏观经济研究院社会发展研究所

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地方财政支出 全要素生产率 直接效应 空间溢出效应

国家自然科学基金面上项目福建省社会科学基金项目(西部项目)

72073030FJ2022X007

2024

宏观经济研究
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院

宏观经济研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.739
ISSN:1008-2069
年,卷(期):2024.(9)