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中国内外贸一体化水平:统计测度、分布动态及区域差异

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加快内外贸一体化发展是构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展的内在要求,对促进经济发展、扩大内需、稳定企业具有重要作用.本文从企业资质、市场环境和政策支持三个维度构建内外贸一体化水平指标体系,基于熵值法赋权,测算2012-2021年中国30个省份的内外贸一体化水平,并利用核密度估计、马尔可夫链、空间马尔可夫链、β收敛和Dagum基尼系数对各地区内外贸一体化水平的分布动态及区域差异进行了分析.研究发现:(1)全国、东部和西部地区的内外贸一体化水平具有分散化集聚特征,中部和东北地区的内外贸一体化水平具有聚合性集聚特征.(2)不同内外贸一体化水平等级的省份在下一阶段维持原有等级的概率最大,即存在"俱乐部趋同"特征.不同等级水平之间的转移具有显著的空间依赖性,低水平的省份会阻碍相邻省份内外贸一体化水平增长,而高水平的省份对相邻省份内外贸一体化水平表现出正向拉动作用.全国和四大区域的内外贸一体化水平存在条件β收敛,水平较低的中部地区向高水平收敛的速度更快.(3)内外贸一体化水平的总体差异呈现出小幅递减的趋势,四大区域的组间差异是地区差异的主要来源,区域内差异次之,超变密度最小.本文的研究结论为稳步推进中国内外贸一体化发展、加速构建新发展格局提供参考依据和可行路径.
Accelerating the development of domestic and foreign trade integration is an intrinsic requirement for building the new development para-digm and promoting high-quality development,and plays an important role in promoting economic development,expanding domestic demand and sta-bilizing enterprises.The index system of domestic and foreign trade integration level is constructed from three dimensions of enterprise qualification,market environment and policy support.Based on the entropy method of weighting,this paper meas-ures the domestic and foreign trade integration level of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021,and analyzes the distribution dynamics and regional differences of domestic and foreign trade integration level by using the kernel density estimation,Markov chain,spatial Markov chain,β-convergence,and Dagum Gini coefficient in each region.It is found that:(1)the integration level of domestic and for-eign trade in the national,eastern and western regions is characterized by decentralized agglomera-tion,while the integration level of domestic and foreign trade in the central and northeastern regions is characterized by aggregated agglomeration.(2)Provinces with different integration level of domestic and foreign trade have the greatest proba-bility of maintaining their original levels in the next stage,i.e.,there is a'club convergence'charac-teristic.The transfer between different levels has significant spatial dependence,with low-level provinces hindering the growth of neighboring prov-inces'integration levels of domestic and foreign trade,while high-level provinces show positive pulling effects on neighboring provinces'integration levels of domestic and foreign trade.There is condi-tional β-convergence in the integration level of domestic and foreign trade in the country and the four major regions,and the central region with a lower level converges faster to a higher level.(3)The overall difference in the integration level of domestic and for-eign trade shows a small decreasing trend,and the inter-group differences in the four major regions are the main source of regional differences,followed by intra-regional differences,with the smallest hyper va-riance density.The findings of this article provide a reference basis and feasible path for steadily advancing the development of China's integration of domestic and foreign trade and accelerating the con-struction of a new development pattern.

Integration level of domestic and foreign tradeMarkov chainβ-convergenceDagum Gini coefficient

周南南、曹琳枫

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青岛科技大学经济与管理学院

内外贸一体化水平 马尔可夫链 β收敛 Dagum基尼系数

国家社会科学基金一般项目国家社会科学基金重点项目山东省社会科学一般项目

23BTJ00822AZD14022CTJJ0

2024

宏观经济研究
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院

宏观经济研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.739
ISSN:1008-2069
年,卷(期):2024.(9)