首页|数实融合驱动城市韧性提升的机制与效应研究

数实融合驱动城市韧性提升的机制与效应研究

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推动数字经济和实体经济深度融合,对增强城市韧性、促进城市可持续发展具有重要意义.本文基于2011-2021年长三角、京津冀、珠三角三大城市群49个城市的面板数据,在对数实融合水平和城市韧性水平进行测度分析的基础上,实证检验了数实融合对城市韧性的影响效应和作用机制.分析结果表明:(1)三大城市群的数实融合水平和城市韧性水平均呈增长趋势,表现为珠三角>长三角>京津冀的空间格局;(2)数实融合对城市韧性具有显著的正向影响,且影响程度在不同特征的城市间呈现明显差异;(3)数实融合通过提升社会保障水平和扩大市场规模间接促进城市韧性提升;(4)产业结构升级水平在数实融合对城市韧性的影响中存在门槛效应,随着产业结构升级水平的提升,促进作用更强;(5)数实融合对城市韧性的影响存在显著的空间溢出效应.因此,为充分发挥数实融合对城市韧性的促进作用,应进一步提升数实融合水平,增强社会保障能力,推动产业结构升级,促进区域协调发展.
Promoting the deep integration of digital and real economy is of great significance to enhance urban resilience and thus promote sustain-able urban development.Based on the panel data of 49 cities in the three major city clusters of Yangtze River Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Pearl River Delta from 2011 to 2021,the effect and mechanism of digital-real integration on urban re-silience are empirically examined based on measur-ing and analyzing the digital-real integration level and urban resilience level.The analysis results show that:(1)the level of digital-real integration and the level of urban resilience of the three major urban agglomerations show a growing trend,which manifests the spatial pattern of Pearl River Delta>Yangtze River Delta>Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei;(2)the digital-real integration has a significant positive impact on urban resilience and the degree of the impact is significantly different among cities with different characteristics;(3)the digital-real integration indirectly promotes the urban resilience improvement by enhancing the level of social security and expanding the scale of the market;(4)there is a threshold effect of industrial structure upgrading level in the impact of digital-real integration on ur-ban resilience,and the promotion effect is stronger as the level of industrial structure upgrading is im-proved;(5)there is a significant spatial spillover effect of the impact of digital-real integration on urban resilience.Therefore,to give full play to the promotion effect of digital-real integration on urban resilience,the level of digital-real integration should be further enhanced,the social security ca-pacity should be strengthened,industrial structure upgrading should be promoted,and regional coor-dinated development should be facilitated.

Digital-real integrationUrban resilienceIntermediary effectSpillover effect

赵佳丽、张晓雅、常非凡

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山西财经大学统计学院

国家发展改革委国际合作中心

数实融合 城市韧性 中介效应 溢出效应

2024

宏观经济研究
国家发展和改革委员会宏观经济研究院

宏观经济研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.739
ISSN:1008-2069
年,卷(期):2024.(11)