In April 2023,when the European Parliament adopted the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),it was proposed that the list would be dynamically adjusted according to the effect of preventing carbon leakage in the future.In this article,China's exports to the European Union(EU)of 97 products labeled with 2-digit HS codes are taken as research samples,and the input-output(I-O)model is used to measure the carbon emissions of all categories of products,and to comprehensively analyze the possible adverse effects of the dynamic adjustment of the CBAM on China's exports to the EU by means of static sample analysis,Monte Carlo simulation,and market share measurements.The results show that the inclusion of plastics,rubber,electromechanical and automo-tive products in the CBAM list will cause China's exports of the above products to the EU to face a profit loss of about 10％and cause a profit loss of 0.1％～5.9％of China's total exports to the EU;through Monte Carlo simulation analysis,it is found that if China and the EU cannot reach a consensus on carbon market construction in the future,by 2050 China's exports to the EU will account for 10％～15％of China's total export profit loss due to carbon trading spreads;through market share analysis,it is found that electromechanical products,automobiles,ships,and other industries are likely to see the outward and backward transfer of some segments triggered by the EU's imposition of carbon tariff.Based on the above conclusions,this article puts forward a series of policy recommendations to properly resolve the adverse impact of CBAM by promoting the construction of the domestic carbon market,establishing unified carbon emission meas-urement rules,accelerating the green and low-car-bon transformation of the domestic manufacturing industry,and weaving a dense network of industrial cooperation between China and the EU.
Carbon Border Adjustment Mech-anism(CBAM)Export driving forceCarbon emissionIndustry transfer
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