基于蒙特卡洛方法的油田管道内腐蚀状态安全评价及预测
Safety Evaluation and Prediction of Corrosion Status of the Inner Wall of Oilfield Pipeline Based on Monte Carlo Method
王宏军 1国滨 2宫彦双 1马义来 2吴超 1安超1
作者信息
- 1. 塔里木油田油气工程研究院
- 2. 中国特种设备检测研究院
- 折叠
摘要
随着管道长时间运行,油气管道内壁会出现不同程度的腐蚀、凹点、裂纹、结垢及磨蚀等缺陷,需要及时维修或者更换.针对油田管道内壁腐蚀特点,提出了一种新的基于蒙特卡洛方法的管道安全评估模型.首先用管道内检测仪器对目标管道进行内检测,获取相关缺陷的具体数据,然后在分析数据的基础上预测腐蚀缺陷生长规律,最后基于安全预警模型对管道内腐蚀进行安全评价,预判管道失效年限.
Abstract
With the long-term operation of the pipeline,the inner wall of the oil&gas pipeline encounters with different corrosions,concave points,cracks,scaling,abrasion and other defects,which need to be repaired or replaced in time.In this paper,a new pipeline safety evaluation model based on Monte Carlo method was proposed,in which,having the target pipeline inspected by the in-pipe detector to obtain spe-cific data of related defects,and then,on the basis of analyzing these data,the growth law of corrosion defects was predicted and finally,based on the safety warning model,the internal corrosion of the pipeline was evaluated and its failure time was predicted.
关键词
油田管道/内壁腐蚀/管道内检测/综合评价/安全预警Key words
oilfield pipeline/inner wall corrosion/in-pipe inspection/comprehensive evaluation/safety warning引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2018YFF0215000)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据