化工机械2024,Vol.51Issue(5) :764-773.DOI:10.20031/j.cnki.0254-6094.202405016

基于概率统计的压缩机可靠性研究

Reliability Study of Compressor Systems Based on Probability Statistics

魏然然 郑洪龙 郝振凯 熊至宜 黄伟
化工机械2024,Vol.51Issue(5) :764-773.DOI:10.20031/j.cnki.0254-6094.202405016

基于概率统计的压缩机可靠性研究

Reliability Study of Compressor Systems Based on Probability Statistics

魏然然 1郑洪龙 1郝振凯 2熊至宜 3黄伟3
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作者信息

  • 1. 国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司
  • 2. 西安热工研究院有限公司
  • 3. 中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院
  • 折叠

摘要

在统计国家管网现场大型离心压缩机机组 2006~2022 年运行故障数据的基础上,对数据进行清洗,将离心压缩机系统分为多个子系统进行概率统计,通过历史故障数据进行经验分布拟合与检验,建立了整个离心压缩机及其部件故障数据计算模型.除工艺系统服从对数正态分布外,其他服从双参数Weibull分布;所建立的计算模型都有 95%以上的置信区间.

Abstract

In this paper,based on the statistics of the fault data of large centrifugal compressor units in the national pipeline network from 2006 to 2022,the data were cleaned and the centrifugal compressor system was divided into multiple subsystems for probability statistics,including having the empirical distribution fitting and testing implemented through the historical fault data to establish a calculation model for the fault data of both centrifugal compressor and its components.The results show that,the process system complies with the log-normal distribution and the others obey the double-parameter Weibull distribution.All the computational models developed have confidence intervals above 95%.

关键词

离心压缩机/系统可靠性/概率统计/分布拟合/Weibull分布

Key words

centrifugal compressor/system reliability/probability statistics/distribution fitting/Weibull distribution

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基金项目

国家管网集团公司科研项目(WZXGL202108)

出版年

2024
化工机械
天华化工机械及自动化研究设计院有限公司

化工机械

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.325
ISSN:0254-6094
参考文献量2
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