Parameter Selection and Application in Reservoirs Uncertainty Analysis
The probability method is a research technique utilized for analyzing uncertainty in reserve assessments.Currently,the conventional approach involves selecting primary parameters,such as oil-bearing area,effective thickness,porosity,and oil saturation,as random variables and then utilizing volumetric calculation formulas for evaluation,using the marine sandstone oilfield in the Pearl River Mouth Basin as an example.Examineing the differences between effective thickness and net-to-gross ratio(NTG)in the application of the probability method.The study reveals that the conventional method of selecting effective thickness as a random variable has certain practical limitations.By optimizing the calculation formula and utilizing NTG as the primary parameter for probability method evaluation,the relative error between the mathematical expectation(Pmean)of estimated reserves and the volumetric estimation of reserves is reduced.Moreover,the probability distribution curve is more focused,resulting in a higher level of reserve reliability.
probability methoduncertainty analysisrandom variableeffective thicknessnet to gross ratio(NTG)
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