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黄河流域县域人口老龄化时空格局演变及影响因素

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科学地厘清黄河流域县域人口老龄化问题的时空格局演变及其影响因素对推进流域高质量发展、合理分配社会资源,实现黄河流域的"积极老龄化"具有重要意义.本文以黄河流域为例,综合采用空间自相关分析、空间计量模型等方法系统地分析2000-2020年黄河流域人口老龄化的时空分异及影响因素.结果表明:(1)2000-2020年黄河流域人口老龄化由5.95%增长到12.89%,人口老龄化分布呈现出从上游、中游至下游"阶梯式"增长的态势.(2)2000-2020年黄河流域县域人口老龄化具有显著的空间集聚特征,人口老龄化高—高集聚区由东部不断向中部黄河"几"字湾处和黄河入海口处转移,低—低集聚区由西北部和中部向西南部扩展.(3)2000-2020年黄河流域人口老龄化时空分异受人口、经济及社会因素的共同影响.自然增长率、迁入率等人口因素的影响程度不断升高,人均GDP,人均可支配收入,二、三产业占比等经济因素的影响程度有所降低,城镇化率、每千人拥有床位数等社会因素对人口老龄化时空分异的影响程度不断升高.
Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Population Aging and Its Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Basin
Scientific clarification of the spatial and temporal situation and the influencing factors of population aging in the Yellow River Basin is of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of the basin,rationally allocating social resources,and realizing the"active aging"of the Yellow River Basin.Taking the Yellow River Basin as an example,this paper comprehensively analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation and influencing factors of population aging in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 by comprehensively using spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the population aging in the Yellow River Basin increased from 5.95%to 12.89%,and the distribution of population aging showed a"step-type"growth trend from the upstream,middle stream to the downstream.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the population aging of counties in the Yellow River Basin has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics,and the high-high agglomeration area of population aging continues to shift from the east to the"several"bay of the Yellow River in the central part and the mouth of the Yellow River,and the low-low agglomeration area expands from the northwest and the central to the southwest.(3)The spatial and temporal differentiation of population aging in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was affected by the combination of demographic,economic and social factors.The influence of demographic factors such as natural growth rate and migration rate has been increasing,the influence of economic factors such as per capita GDP,per capita disposable income,and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries has decreased,and the impact of social factors such as urbanization rate and the number of beds per 1,000 people on the spatial and temporal differentiation of population aging has been deepening.

county population agingspatial and temporal evolutioninfluencing factorsYellow River Basin

孙丕苓、李翼展、戴仪

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曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院

河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心

县域人口老龄化 时空演变 影响因素 黄河流域

2024

黄河文明与可持续发展
河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心

黄河文明与可持续发展

ISSN:
年,卷(期):2024.(1)