Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of agricultural non-point source pollution load in Ankang section of Hanjiang River Basin
To clarify the characteristics of agricultural non-point source pollution in Ankang and provide support for the prevention and control of non-point source pollution.The total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP)pollution loads from agricultural non-point source in 10 counties of Ankang from 2013 to 2021 were estimated by using ECM model,the pollution sources were evaluated by using equivalent standard pollution load,and the non-point source pollution loads from 2022 to 2025 were predicted by using grey prediction model.The results showed that the total TN and TP loads of agricultural planting,livestock and poultry breeding and rural life in Ankang from 2013 to 2021 were 17410.47～19631.84 t and 1290.62～1728.90 t,respectively.The TN and TP pollution loads of non-point source pollution first decreased and then increased,and reached the lowest level in 2019.In 2021,the TN of different pollution sources in Ankang region was agricultural planting(77.50%)>livestock and poultry breeding(12.63%)>rural life(9.86%),and the TP of different pollution sources was livestock and poultry breeding(46.63%)>agricultural planting(39.27%)>rural life(14.10%).The spatial distribution of TN and TP pollution loads of agricultural non-point source pollution in 2021 and 2025 was consistent.From 2022 to 2025,the total TN and TP loads of agricultural planting,livestock and poultry breeding and rural living were 17,376.38～18,094.98 t and 1,121.84～1,229.11 t,respectively,and the non-point source pollution load decreased overall.Based on the results of rapid clustering,the non-point source pollution control zones of Ankang in 2025 could be divided into three pollution types.
万方数据
维普
