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四川省种养业碳排放时空演变、影响因素与趋势分析

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为研究四川省种养业碳排放的演化趋势及其成因,文章基于排放因子法、灰色系统和LMDI分解模型,探究了四川省种养业碳排放时空格局、影响因素和未来趋势。研究发现,2000-2020年,四川省种养业碳排放波动下降,共减少 60。16×104 t,整体呈"中部低、四周高"的碳排放格局;四川省种养业碳排放主要来源于畜禽养殖和农地利用,其中川西地区主要为畜禽养殖主导型,川东南和川东北地区主要为畜禽养殖与农地利用共同主导;碳排放强度、内外部产业结构和农村人口对碳排放起抑制作用,经济发展水平和城镇化对碳排放起促进作用;未来 10年,四川省种养业碳排放将延续下降趋势,预计减少 20。85×104 t,而农地利用将成为主要碳源。未来四川省种养业应围绕农用物资的高效利用,因地制宜推动经营管理模式的低碳转型。
Spatiotemporal evolution,influencing factors,and trend analysis of carbon emissions from breeding industry in Sichuan Province
To study the evolution trend and causes of carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province,the spatio-temporal pattern,influencing factors and future trend of carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province were explored based on emission factor method,grey system and LMDI decomposition model.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,carbon emissions in the agricultural sector of Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating decline,with a total reduction of 60.16×104 t,and the overall carbon emission pattern was"low in the central part and high in the surrounding area".In Sichuan Province,the carbon emissions of breeding industry mainly came from livestock and poultry breeding and agricultural land use.In western Sichuan,livestock and poultry breeding were mainly dominant,while in southeast and northeast Sichuan,livestock and poultry breeding and agricultural land use were co-dominant.Carbon emission intensity,internal and external industrial structure and rural population inhibit carbon emission,while economic development level and urbanization promote carbon emission.In the next 10 years,carbon emissions from the breeding industry in Sichuan Province will continue to decline,and it is expected to decrease by 20.85×104 t,while agricultural land utilization will become the main carbon source.In the future,Sichuan's breeding industry should focus on the efficient use of agricultural materials and promote the low-carbon transformation of operation and management mode according to local conditions.

carbon emissionsstructural changesLMDI modelgray prediction

韩宇、肖亚成、肖桑梦

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西南大学经济管理学院,重庆 400715

北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京 100083

西南大学乡村振兴战略研究院,重庆 400715

碳排放 结构变化 LMDI模型 灰色预测

2024

环境保护科学
沈阳环境科学研究院

环境保护科学

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.469
ISSN:1004-6216
年,卷(期):2024.50(6)