QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES ON ECOLOGICAL QUALITY:A CASE STUDY OF HAINAN ISLAND
The synergistic effects of climate change and human activities on ecosystem changes are difficult to distinguish.Focusing on this scientific issue,this study uses Hainan Island as a case study to measure the residuals of actual and potential trends in ecological quality,and quantify the relative contributions of climate factors and human activities with the residual trend method.The results show that the overall ecological quality of Hainan Island has been on an upward trend from 2002 to 2020,with 54.09%of the regional ecological quality showing a significant improvement trend,and 4.33%showing a significant decline trend.The contribution rate of human activities to the change in ecological quality on Hainan Island is 85.93%(P<0.05),while the contribution rate of climate change is 14.07%(P<0.05).Human activities have played a dominant role in the change of ecological quality on Hainan Island.Areas experiencing ecological quality improvement have seen a rise in forest ecosystems and a corresponding decline in farmland ecosystems.The main anthropogenic activities responsible for this are the sequential implementation of coastal defense forest construction,commercial plantation establishment,and the delineation of ecological protection red lines,such as Lingao County.Areas experiencing a decline in ecological quality have witnessed a reduction in forest ecosystems accompanied by an expansion of farmland and urban ecosystems.The primary human activity leading to this change is land reclamation and urban development through construction activities,such as Haikou.This study is of great significance for the scientific management of ecosystems and the response to climate change.
ecological qualityclimate changehuman activitiesHainan Island