REGIONAL CARBON EMISSION PEAKING BASED ON THRESHOLD-STIRPAT EXTENSION MODEL:A CASE STUDY ON EAST CHINA
The Chinese government proposes to strive to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030,so it is necessary to actively explore the time and peak of carbon emissions in typical regions under different development models.Combining the threshold regression model with the STIRPAT model,a threshold-STIRPAT extension model was constructed to analyze the carbon emissions of seven provinces and cities in East China from 2005 to 2019,and combined with the scenario analysis method,the carbon emissions of provinces and cities in East China from 2020 to 2040 were predicted respectively.The forecast results show that:under the development model of the benchmark scenario,all provinces and cities in East China can achieve the peak of carbon emissions target in 2030;under the model of the energy-saving development scenario and the green development scenario,all provinces and cities can achieve the peak of carbon emissions target 4 to 5 years ahead of schedule.It is suggested that the 7 provinces in East China:Shanghai,Jiangsu and Zhejiang should use the energy-saving development scenario as the standard for industrial development planning;while Anhui,Fujian,Jiangxi and Shandong should select the benchmark scenario and strive to use the energy-saving development scenario as the standard,to layout their industrial development in the future.
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