基于InVEST-FLUS模型的祁连山国家公园碳储量演化分析及预测

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中文摘要：碳储量作为生态系统服务功能的一个重要指标,是人类活动、水热变化及植被生长状况等因素综合作用的结果.祁连山国家公园作为西部地区重点生态保护区之一,开展土地利用与碳储量的预测及定量评估,对双碳目标的实现及生态保护区的科学划分具有重要意义.基于InVEST模型揭示了 2000-2020年祁连山国家公园土地利用变化带来的碳储量效应,耦合FLUS模型预测了 2030年研究区土地利用变化及其碳储量的影响.结果表明:1)2000-2020年研究区草地和湿地持续减少,林地和水域持续增加,耕地和未利用地先增后减,建设用地先减后增.研究区碳储量整体较高,但随着土地利用的变化,碳储量呈缓慢递增的趋势,20年间累计增加碳储量9.35xl07 t.2)研究区碳储量呈"西低东高"的空间分布格局,高聚集区主要分布在生态用地多且连片的中部和东部区域,低聚集区则主要分布在国土开发强度高且生态用地破碎化的西部地区,高碳储量的林地和草地的变化是影响研究区碳储量空间分布格局的主要因素.3)自然发展情况下,2030年研究区碳储量将达到9.4x108 t,相比2020年会增加9.30％,引起这一变化的主要原因是林地的大面积增加.研究结果为严格落实祁连山生态红线等生态保护政策提供了参考,以期进一步优化祁连山国家公园土地利用结构,减缓区域碳储量损失.

外文标题：ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF CARBON STORAGE EVOLUTION IN QILIAN MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK BASED ON InVEST-FLUS MODEL

外文摘要：As an important index of ecosystem service function,carbon storage is the result of the comprehensive effects of human activities,hydrothermal changes,and vegetation growth.As one of the key ecological protection areas in western China,the prediction and quantitative assessment of land use and carbon storage of Qilian Mountain National Park is of great significance for the realization of the dual carbon target and the scientific division of protection areas in western China.In this study,the InVEST model was used to reveal the carbon storage effect of land use change in Qilian Mountain National Park from 2000 to 2020,and the FLUS model was coupled to predict the impact of land use change and carbon storage in the study area in 2030.The results showed as follows:1)from 2000 to 2020,grassland and wetland in the study area continued to decrease,forest land and water area continued to increase,cultivated land and unused land increased first and then decreased,and construction land decreased first and then increased.The carbon storage in the study area was relatively high on the whole,but with the change in land use,the carbon storage showed a slowly increasing trend,and the cumulative increase of carbon storage was 9.35×107 t in 20 years.2)The spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage in the study area was lower in the west and higher in the east.The high accumulation area was mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions with large and contiguous ecological land,while the low accumulation area was mainly distributed in the western regions with high land development intensity and ecological land fragmentation.The main factors affecting the spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage were forestland and grassland with high carbon storage.3)In the case of natural development,carbon storage in the study area will reach 9.4x108 t in 2030,increased by 9.30％compared with 2020.The main reason for this change is the large-scale increase in forest land.The results provide a scientific basis for the strict implementation of ecological protection policies such as the Qilian Mountain ecological red line,and provide a scientific reference for further optimizing the land use structure of the Qilian Mountain National Park and slowing down the loss of regional carbon stocks.

外文关键词：

Qilian Mountain National ParkInVEST modelcarbon storageFLUS modelspatio-temporal variation

作者：

苏军德、赵晓冏、李国霞

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作者单位：

甘肃有色冶金职业技术学院,甘肃金昌 737100

甘肃省生态环境科学设计研究院,兰州 730000

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,兰州 730000

关键词：

祁连山国家公园 InVEST模型碳储量 FLUS模型时空变化

基金：

甘肃省自然科学基金项目甘肃省陇原青年英才支持计划金昌市科技计划项目甘肃省人文社会科学项目甘肃省青年人才基金甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目

项目编号：

22JR5RC1081[2023]11号2023RC01423ZC1818JR5RC42019YB155

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.13205/j.hjgc.202407021

环境工程

中冶建筑研究总院有限公司,中国环境科学学会环境工程分会

环境工程

CSTPCD

影响因子：0.958

ISSN：1000-8942

年,卷(期)：2024.42(7)