Overview of PM2.5 Pollution Status and Comparative Analysis on the Forecasting Effect of Air Quality in Shandong Province,China
This paper analyzed the characteristics of PM2.5 pollution in 16 cities in Shandong Province from 2019 to 2022,and evaluated the forecasting effects in 2021 and 2022 of four numerical models(CMAQ,CAMx,WRF-Chem,NAQPMS)and ensemble forecasting model.The results showed as follows:The average annual concentration of PM2.5 in Shandong Province from 2019 to 2022 has decreased year by year,and the pollution degree has gradually decreased.However,the phenomenon of PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the national standard often occurred in the months of January-March and November-December.After updating of the pollutant emission inventory of models at the end of 2021,the 24-hour level accuracy and correlation coefficient(r)of the five models increased year on year in 2022,and the root mean square error(RMSE)decreased year on year.Although the model forecast accuracy was improved,CMAQ,CAMx,WRF-Chem,and ensemble forecasting model were easy to miss or underforecast the moderately and heavily polluted weather of PM2.5,due to that the parameter adjustment was slightly larger.Since the heterogeneous chemical reaction mechanism was improved when the pollution emission inventory of NAQPMS was updated,the forecast accuracy of different levels of PM2.5 days was significantly improved,especially on the moderately and heavily polluted days.
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