Analysis on Gross β Radioactivity Level in the Aerosol around Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant and Optimization of ARIMA Model Construction
Based on the monthly monitoring data of gross β activity concentration of aerosol around Fuqing nuclear power plant from May 2015 to December 2022,the correlation between monitoring points and between monitoring points and control points was discussed by statistical Spearman rank correlation coefficient method.The relationship between gross β and rainfall was analyzed by linear regression method.The monitoring value of gross β activity concentration was negatively correlated with rainfall,and there was no obvious seasonality.The gross β radioactivity levels in aerosols around PWR nuclear power plants in China and the United States were investigated and compared.The application of integrated moving average autoregressive model(ARIMA)in the analysis and prediction of gross β activity concentration in aerosol aroundnuclear power plant was discussed.The prediction model ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)suitable for the prediction of gross β activity concentration in aerosol around Fuqing nuclear power plant was established and optimized,which will be helpful for the prediction and early warning of gross β activity concentration in aerosol around Fuqing nuclear power plant.
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