In the context of global sustainable development,assessing and predicting changes in land use and ecosystem carbon storage in urban expansion plays a crucial role in enhancing regional carbon sequestration capacity.Based on land use data in Suzhou City from 1980 to 2020,the InVEST model was utilized to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of carbon storage over 40 years.Furthermore,it combined relevant driving factors using the PLUS model to predict carbon storage under different scenarios in 2030.The results indicate from 1980 to 2020,the dominant land use types were crop-land,water bodies,and urban land.Cropland area decreased while urban land area increased,with minimal changes in other land classes.The predominant land use transition was the conversion of cropland to urban land.Carbon storage exhibited a continuous decreasing trend from 1980 to 2020,decreasing by a total of 5.768×106 tons over 40 years.In 2030,under the scenarios of natural development and planning constraint,carbon storage decreased by 6.52×105 and 3.54×104 tons,respec-tively,compared to 2020.The planning constraint scenario mitigated carbon loss.These research findings can provide a scientific basis and reference for the formulation of"dual carbon"policies and the optimization of territorial spatial planning in Yangtze River Delta.
关键词
土地利用变化/碳储量/苏州市/InVEST模型/PLUS模型
Key words
land use change/carbon storage/Suzhou City/InVEST model/PLUS model
维普
万方数据